RESUMO
A multitude of demographic, health, and genetic factors are associated with the risk of developing severe COVID-19 following infection by the SARS-CoV-2. There is a need to perform studies across human societies and to investigate the full spectrum of genetic variation of the virus. Using data from 869 COVID-19 patients in Bahrain between March 2020 and March 2021, we analyzed paired viral sequencing and non-genetic host data to understand host and viral determinants of severe COVID-19. We estimated the effects of demographic variables specific to the Bahrain population and found that the impact of health factors are largely consistent with other populations. To extend beyond the common variants of concern in the Spike protein analyzed by previous studies, we used a viral burden approach and detected a protective effect of low-frequency missense viral mutations in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (Pol) gene on disease severity. Our results contribute to the survey of severe COVID-19 in diverse populations and highlight the benefits of studying rare viral mutations.
RESUMO
SARS-CoV-2 has caused a severe, ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Massachusetts with 111,070 confirmed cases and 8,433 deaths as of August 1, 2020. To investigate the introduction, spread, and epidemiology of COVID-19 in the Boston area, we sequenced and analyzed 772 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the region, including nearly all confirmed cases within the first week of the epidemic and hundreds of cases from major outbreaks at a conference, a nursing facility, and among homeless shelter guests and staff. The data reveal over 80 introductions into the Boston area, predominantly from elsewhere in the United States and Europe. We studied two superspreading events covered by the data, events that led to very different outcomes because of the timing and populations involved. One produced rapid spread in a vulnerable population but little onward transmission, while the other was a major contributor to sustained community transmission, including outbreaks in homeless populations, and was exported to several other domestic and international sites. The same two events differed significantly in the number of new mutations seen, raising the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 superspreading might encompass disparate transmission dynamics. Our results highlight the failure of measures to prevent importation into MA early in the outbreak, underscore the role of superspreading in amplifying an outbreak in a major urban area, and lay a foundation for contact tracing informed by genetic data.
